Professor’s Comments March 1, 2019
Posted by OMS at March 1st, 2019
The markets pulled back mildly yesterday. The Dow dropped 69 points, closing at 25,916. The NASDAQ and SPX were down 22 and 8 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE was on the heavy side, coming in at 111 percent of its 10-day moving average. There were 129 new highs and 15 new lows.
The markets remain at a critical juncture this morning where they can go either way. However, yesterday’s mild decline suggests the pullback was a small wave 4 within a five wave rise. If this analysis is correct, the markets should rally today and into next week to complete Wave 1 up.
BTW, the period between 8-11 March contains multiple Fibonacci turn dates. When these turn dates come together to form a cluster, the probability for a market turn increases significantly. With the breadth indicators starting to turn negative and my volume measures showing divergence, the period between 8-11 March could mark an important turning point for the market.
Students should pay particular attention to the market timing indicators as we move into next week. IF Wave 1 up does complete in the 8-11 March window, Wave 2 down could drop the Dow back down to the 24,500 – 24,800 level. So if the indicators begin to turn negative, the odds are that Wave 2 down of a Major five wave sequence is starting.
There were no changes to my market timing signals for equities. All major equity indexes remain on Buy Signals.
The Tide turned Neutral. The Dean’s List remains positive.
The Sector Ratio remained at 23-1 positive after yesterday’s session. The Strong List continues to be led by Household Products, Semiconductors, Technology, Service, and CapGoods. The only Weak Sector was FoodDrug.
Gold pulled back yesterday with GLD dropping 0.70 cents to 123,99. The volume portion of my VTI-volume indicator turned negative, making the timing signal for gold Neutral. This increases the odds that gold is starting a small wave 2 pullback. Yesterday, even though the 2-period RSI on GLD was oversold, the short-term bars never triggered a Buy Signal. Because this, I will now have to wait for the volume portion of the VTI-volume indicator to turn positive again before establishing a position in gold.
Crude Oil (UCO) rose 0.14 cents yesterday, closing at 19.78. Crude Oil remains on a Buy Signal. UCO still appears to be developing a small wave 2 ‘Blade’ along its 50-day moving average. This might take a few more days to complete. The ‘Blade’ should enable UCO to test its 200 currently near 23.00.
BTW, there are several things that students should be noting about Crude Oil now. The first is that today is 1 March, which is the time when most refineries switch to producing the summer blends of gasoline. This is when disruptions in the supply/ demand of crude and other energy related products usually occur. Also, as the summer driving season approaches, the demand for crude and crude related produces tends to increase. This is starting to be reflected in the chart of crude oil. If you have time this morning, take a close look at the classic cup and handle pattern that has formed on the 15 minute chart of UCO. The cup and handle is a variation of my Hockey Stick Pattern, so students can apply the techniques they learned in Class to make their own price projections. For now, I’m using the 23.00 level as my initial target, which is where the 200 is currently located. And finally, students should note that UCO has now moved to the top of the Dean’s List.
Model Portfolio: The Model remains 25 percent invested in Crude Oil (UCO) and 75 percent in cash.
That’s what I’m doing,
h
Market Signals for
03-01-2019
DMI (DIA) | POS |
DMI (QQQ) | POS |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | POS |
THE TIDE | NEU |
Index | Signal | Signal Date |
---|---|---|
DOW | POS | 15 Feb 2019 |
NASDAQ | POS | 07 Jan 2019 |
GOLD | NEU | 28 Feb 2019 |
U.S. DOLLAR | POS | 28 Feb 2019 |
BONDS | NEG | 27 Feb 2019 |
CRUDE OIL | POS | 13 Feb 2019 |
One hour video recorded from May 28, 2016 The Professor’s Signs of a Major Market Turn – Prospectives and the Projected Timing and Levels One hour streaming video – includes webinar handouts The Professor usually holds an update class whenever the Market looks like it may be making a major turn. If you have been following the Professor’s Comments you know that a turn is due….. LEARN MORE
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
FAQ
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Category: Professor's Comments