Professor’s Comments June 3, 2016
Posted by OMS at June 3rd, 2016
The Dow rose 49 points, closing at 17,839. Volume was moderate, coming in at 99 percent of its 10-day average. There were 134 new highs and only 7 new lows.
The BLS will be releasing the May Jobs Report numbers at 8:30 this morning. Because the Jobs Report usually has a significant impact on the markets, I prefer to wait for the number to be released before placing any trades.
Right now, with most of the cockpit indicators being positive, a healthy Jobs Report number should continue to push the markets higher to complete final wave ‘C’ up of Major Wave 2 up near or above the 18,168 level. However, if the market interprets the Jobs Report as negative, Major Wave 2 up could truncate near current levels and start heading down. A break of the 17,485 level would conform that Major Wave 3 down is underway.
Last night, the Volume Trend Indicator (VTI) on the Dow had a reading of 60.08 which means the large cap index has a positive bias, but is still not in the Trend Mode. If the market rallies today causing the VTI to move above 70, it’s likely the Up Trend will push the Dow above the 18,168 level. The fact that The Tide and Dean’s List are positive also support higher prices.
However, I should mention that the VTI for UUP, the ETF for the Dollar, has now entered the Trend Mode. And as long as UUP remains on the Dean’s List, a strong, trending Dollar will act as a headwind to significantly higher stock prices.
Gold continues to drift lower in what appears to be a corrective Wave 2 down. As I mentioned in last Saturday’s webinar, as long as UUP, the ETF for the Dollar remains on the Dean’s List, gold will likely fall below 2,000 until it finds support near 1,980. This is where I will be looking for gold to start its Wave 3 rally.
BTW, the next rally leg in gold should take it past the 1,400 level as a minimum. Last night gold closed just under 1,213. GLD, the gold ETF, closed at 115.67. I’d like to buy it near or under 113, but only if I see the Dollar start to weaken. Right now the Dollar is too strong for me to go mining.
Waiting for the Jobs Report.
That’s what I’m doing,
h
Market Signals for
06-03-2016
DMI (DIA) | NEG |
DMI (QQQ) | POS |
COACH (DIA) | POS |
COACH (QQQ) | POS |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | POS |
THE TIDE | POS |
SUM IND | POS |
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Category: Professor's Comments