Professor’s Comments January 18, 2023
Posted by OMS at January 18th, 2023
Stocks were mixed yesterday on a strange day of trading. The Dow finished with a loss of 392 points, closing at 33,910. The big loss in the Dow was primarily due to two banks, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Goldman alone was down 6.44 percent! The NASDAQ finished with a gain of 15 points while the S&P lost 8 points. Volume on the NYSE came in at 103 percent of its 10-day average. There were 126 new highs and 10 new lows.
After looking at yesterday’s action, it’s possible that sub-wave 2 up is complete and sub-wave 3 down started with yesterday’s decline. It will take a few more days of strong downside follow-through before this can be confirmed. A break below the 10 January low of 33,421 would be a good start. Right now, the Bias Indicator on the Daily Dow is still positive. I want to see it turn negative before I get aggressive.
One of the reasons that I believe a top could be in has to do with the Bradley Turn Dates. Yesterday, 17 January, was one of them. Now before I get into Bradley dates, I must tell you up front that I’m NOT completely sold on them. They have to do with phase of the moon in places like New York (Wall Street) and Chicago (CME). So right off the top, being an engineer by trade, I don’t see how the phases of the moon can impact stock prices. I don’t! But I’m not a fool either, and when I see something work, I look further. My conclusion is that they tend to work a lot more than they don’t. I don’t believe they are in the category of a broken clock that’s right two times a day. So when I see one coming up on the calendar, I pay attention.
BTW, many times, Bradley Dates occur on the same day that a Phi Mate date appears. Phi Mate dates are related to Fibonacci events, which in turn are related to Elliott Waves, so there could be a connection between them. But even with Fibonacci retracements or time sequences, I often wonder if they work because of a valid scientific relationship or because of a self-fulfilling prophesy, where everyone is waiting for a 38 percent retracement before they buy or sell. Truthfully, I don’t know. But like I said, they tend to work more often than they don’t BTW, when a Bradley date and a Fibonacci date occur on the same day, the odds are high that the market will turn. BTW, there have been five times that the Bradley and Phi Mate models lined up since 16 August. All identified significant turns in the market. Pretty amazing!
In case you’re interested, the next Phi Mate date is scheduled for 20 March 2023 with the next Bradley date scheduled for 5 July 2023. The July date does have a pause point in it in March, so its possible that the two models could line up for a major turn in March. Again, take it for what it’s worth, but because I’m still intermediate term bearish, I thought it was interesting to see the market decline yesterday on a major Bradley turn date.
There were no changes to the Market Timing Signals after yesterday’s session.
The Market Timing Indicators are currently positive on the Dow and NASDAQ.
The Dean’s List is positive. The Tide is also positive.
The Sector Ratio weakened to 21-3 positive after Friday’s session. The top five strong sectors were Media (7), Consumer Products (7), Semiconductors (7), Retail (7), and Material (5). The top three weak sectors were Food Drug (-1), Foods (-1) and Utilities (0),
My Trades: I caught the early (10:26) trade on SDOW yesterday. The trade was classic…positive rising Bias on the 5 min chart exiting on the Red Arrow at 11:30. I stayed on the side lines after that, mostly because the Q’s were not confirming.
If the Dow starts out lower today, I’ll look to trade SDOW, but I really want to see the Dow break below 33,421 before I get aggressive.
Students should take a quick look at a 30 min chart of the Dow (DIA). Note the Hockey Stick with Blade that has formed yesterday. Could be the first two waves of a wave 1 down. If so, a sub-wave 3 down should be next. Also, check out the large negative divergence between price and the Bias. Pay attention today, especially with yesterday being a Bradley Turn Date :>)
That’s what I’m doing,
h
Market Signals for
01-18-2023
DMI (DIA) | POS |
DMI (QQQ) | POS |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | POS |
THE TIDE | POS |
Index | Signal | Signal Date |
---|---|---|
DOW | POS | 11 Jan 2023 |
NASDAQ | POS | 11 Jan 2023 |
GOLD | POS | 27 Dec 2022 |
U.S. DOLLAR | NEG | 04 Jan 2023 |
BONDS | POS | 13 Jan 2023 |
CRUDE OIL | POS | 11 Jan 2023 |
CRYPTO | POS | 05 Jan 2023 |
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
FAQ
All of the commentary expressed in this site and any attachments are opinions of the author, subject to change, and provided for educational purposes only. Nothing in this commentary or any attachments should be considered as trading advice. Trading any financial instrument is RISKY and may result in loss of capital including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always understand the RISK before you trade.
Category: Professor's Comments