Professor’s Comments – Bonds & Dollar 9/23/2022

Posted by OMS  at September 23rd, 2022

Bonds:

With the Dow approaching its Wave 1 low, it might be time to start looking at Bonds.

Bonds (TMF) appears to be completing wave 5 down of a five wave pattern for Wave 5 down.

The large speculators, who are almost always on the wrong side of a trade, have increased their short position to 8.4 percent. This is the most short they have been since October 21.

Taken together, both pattern AND the position of the large specs, I’m starting to watch bonds closely.

I bought a small position near current prices and will start adding to it if the 60s and 4-hourly bars begin to turn positive. This will be a longer-term trade for our IRAs.

TWID,

Dollar:

BTW, I’m also watching the Dollar. Today’s rally in UUP will likely conclude the rally in the Dollar that started last April. I can now count 5 waves up in the major rally with an unclear 5 waves up in the smaller wave 5 since the 10 August low. While there might be a bit more rally left in the Dollar, I believe the top is near.

I’m watching the shorter-term bars of UDN to establish an initial position. Once I get in, I’ll watch the 60s and 4-hour bars for opportunities to add to the position. Again, this is mostly for our IRAs as its a longer-term trade.

TWID.

h

Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles

The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
FAQ

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