Professor’s Comments April 27, 2023

Posted by OMS  at April 27th, 2023

Stocks were mixed yesterday on higher-than-average volume.  The Dow finished with a loss of 228 points, closing at 33,301. The NASDAQ gained 55 points; the S&P lost 16 points. Volume on the NYSE came in at 103 percent of its 10-day moving average. There were 31new highs and 101 new lows. Students should note that the number of new lows is now exceeding the new highs.

At this point, it’s still not clear if the top is in or whether the trading action we’ve seen for the past few days is the completion of Wave ‘d’ down within the Ending Diagonal Pattern with Wave ‘e’ up still to come.  We should know in a few days.  If the market begins to rally today, there is a good chance that it will continue to rally into the Fibonacci Cluster Turn Window scheduled for 1-10 May.

As of Wednesday’s close, the Market Timing Indicators on the cockpit for the Dow and NASDAQ have turned neutral.  Neutral signals do not mean that the market has turned.  It’s still possible that the market can rally.

The Dean’s List has turned neutral. The Tide is negative.

The Sector Ratio strengthened to 4-20 negative after Wednesday’s session. The top four strong sectors were Healthcare (2), Household Products (1), Foods (1), and Utilities (0). The top five weak sectors were Retail (-10), Banks (-8), Transportation (-3), Media (-3) and Energy (-3).

My Trades:  I made two small trades yesterday catching some of the Dow’s decline with SDOW.  Both trades were made on my i-Phone as the data from the ship’s internet has been terrible.  The ship only supplies a metered connection, so getting access to ThinkorSwim is impossible.  This is something that frequent travelers to Europe who want to trade during their trip should plan for.  I usually do not recommend things to my students, but in this case, I can highly recommend T-Mobile’s Magenta plan.  It has been absolutely great!

We’re back in Paris today and still on the ship.  I’ll be transferring to our hotel tomorrow morning where I will have more time to look at the data and the charts.  Right now, the indicators are still giving me a lot of mixed data.  I still fell there is a 50-50 chance of a rally into early May, so I’m just being patient.

I’m still waiting for the indicators to turn.

That’s what I’m doing,

h 

Market Signals for

04-27-2023

Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles

The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
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