Professor’s Comments April 21, 2016
Posted by OMS at April 21st, 2016
The Dow rose 43 points, closing at 18,096. Volume was moderate, coming in at 110 percent of its 10-day moving average. There were 133 new highs and only 2 new lows
Even though the Dow closed up again yesterday, it closed significantly off its intraday highs for the second consecutive day. This pattern tells me that traders are not really as bullish as the increasing prices might suggest and that the market is approaching a significant top.
However without sell signals from The Tide and the other cockpit indicators, I continue to wait for the indicators to turn negative.
There was a relatively small change of 12 points in the A-D oscillator yesterday so we need to be on the lookout for a Big Move within the next 1-2 days.
Marcia and I have been visiting a lot of small towns on the Maine coast this past week, so I have not been able to answer any of the emails I have received. However I did notice one email from a student who said he was holding shares of FXP (at a loss) and wondered if a drop in US markets would trigger a fall in China. Hmmm?
Well, as you know, I never answer questions from individuals who ask me to comment or make recommendations about their particular holdings. I simply can’t do this. However in general, I believe that once the US markets start to decline, and at this point, I’m not sure if the decline will start in the US, China, or somewhere else, all world equity markets should start to head lower. The retracement patterns and divergences that I have been talking about in the US markets for weeks are also evident in all of the major world indexes, so once these markets top and the indicstors turn lower, they all should experience significant declines.
But what troubles me about my student’s question is that right now, it’s FXI and NOT FXP that is on the Dean’s List. And right now, all of the PT indicators on FXI are positive. This tells me that my student is NOT following the rules.
So as long as The Tide, the PT indicators, and the Dean’s List remains positive, odds are that prices will continue to push higher. I really don’t expect them to push too much higher, but you never know.
Follow The Tide.
That’s what I’m doing,
h
Market Signals for
04-21-2016
DMI (DIA) | POS |
DMI (QQQ) | POS |
COACH (DIA) | POS |
COACH (QQQ) | POS |
A/D OSC | SM CHG |
DEANs LIST | POS |
THE TIDE | POS |
SUM IND | POS |
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
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Category: Professor's Comments