Professor’s Comments – A Possible Alternate Scenario 7/15/2022

Posted by OMS  at July 15th, 2022

Stocks were mixed to lower yesterday, and for the short -term remain in what appears to be a sideways triangle. The triangle is part of an a-b-c- corrective pattern for Wave 2 up.  So far, every attempt to head lower has been checked ….there have been no impulsive declines. So we must now pay attention to the recent low made on 13 July.

If the indexes have not completed Wave 2 up and decide to turn to turn the simple a-b-c pattern (a single zig-zag) into a more complex double zig-zag, the 13 July low will become the ‘X’ wave of the new pattern and a new a-b-c rally will develop off this low. The ‘X’ wave will connect the two simple a-b-c waves to form the double zig-zag pattern.  If this pattern does develop, it could take the indexes back to the 8 July high as a minimum.  That’s 31,855 on the Dow. Yesterday, the Dow closed at 30,630.

At this point, I must still give this alternate scenario low odds.  But IF the market does not start to decline impulsively soon, the odds for this alternate scenario will increase daily.  Also, IF this alternate scenario does develop, I would expect it to be complete by late next week.

I’ll have more this weekend in the WSR.

h

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The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
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