Professor’s Comments September 30, 2021
Posted by OMS at September 30th, 2021
The decline that started from the 20 September 20 high of 35, 061 appears to be wave 1 down of Wave 3 down. Yesterday’s retracement back to 34,580 appears to be part or all of wave 2 up. If wave 2 up did not complete yesterday, one more rally today should do it. After that, wave 3 of Wave 3 down should drop the Dow well below the 20 September Wave 1 low of 33,613. It could start later today or tomorrow,
I’m in Savannah this morning, staying at a B&B. It’s Marcia’s B-day so I thought I’d treat her to a nice dinner and lunch. The conditions I’m experiencing in writing this post are less than ideal, so I’m gonna keep it short. Basically, nothing changed after Wednesday’s session. There was no change in any of the patterns or the indicators. And that’s what scares me. Rarely does any pattern unfold like the current one is doing. It’s almost perfect! But nevertheless, even though I’m always suspicious of perfect pasterns, I MUST respect them. You should too.
If the Dow does start to break down later today or tomorrow, you need to protect yourself. On Tuesday, both stocks and bonds fell hard. Whenever this happened in the past, it has NOT been good for stocks the following week. The market is nearly twice as likely to trade lower a week later. But here’s the thing, some of those losses are a dozy! This is the kind of set-up that could lead to a 10-16 percent loss a week later. In other words, please be careful if you see the Dow start to break below 34,200, A close below 34,200 now would imply that a decline down to the 32,000 level is in the cards.
If you still remember the Hockey Stick pattern I used to teach in my Classes at UNF, now would be a good time to review it and make a few projections for yourself. Measure the decline since 20 September and then subtract it from yesterday’s high. Maybe then you’ll see why I’m worried. Also, remember that the current Wave 3 down is only part of Major Wave One of the new Bear Market. It could be years before the current Bear is over. It’s just starting.
I’ll have more this weekend.
h
BTW, we had a few students purchase the Scalp Trading Class this week. I haven’t had a chance to thank them because of my travel situation, but I will once I get home. I will be holding a special on-line training session for them., similar to the one most of you received when you purchased the course. If you purchased the course and need a refresher, let me know and I’ll try to get you in. But please, only if you really need it. I want to keep the class small so my new ST students get all their questions answered.
Market Signals for
09-30-2021
DMI (DIA) | NEG |
DMI (QQQ) | NEG |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | NEG |
THE TIDE | NEG |
Index | Signal | Signal Date |
---|---|---|
DOW | NEG | 24 Sep 2021 |
NASDAQ | NEG | 28 Sep 2021 |
GOLD | NEG | 22 Sep 2021 |
U.S. DOLLAR | POS | 17 Sep 2021 |
BONDS | NEG | 28 Sep 2021 |
CRUDE OIL | POS | 15 Sep 2021 |
CRYPTO | NEG | 20 Sep 2021 |
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
FAQ
All of the commentary expressed in this site and any attachments are opinions of the author, subject to change, and provided for educational purposes only. Nothing in this commentary or any attachments should be considered as trading advice. Trading any financial instrument is RISKY and may result in loss of capital including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always understand the RISK before you trade.
Category: Professor's Comments