Professor’s Comments June 16, 2022
Posted by OMS at June 16th, 2022
In Tuesdays Comments, I said that in a perfect world, the Dow would start a rally toward the 31, 500 level to complete retracement sub-wave 2 within Wave 3 down. Well we all know the world is not perfect, however the Dow did rally, but only to to the 31,011 level. This level satisfies the minimum requirement for a Fibonacci retracement, However, the real question now is ….. is this level enough to complete sub-wave 2 up. Unfortunately, nobody can answer that question, so we’ll have to wait another day or so to find out.
Here’s what I did: At 31, 011 , I felt the Dow was close enough to my target for me to start putting on few short positions with inverse index ETFs I started buying TZA and SDOW. If the Dow rallies tomorrow, I will add to these positions. That’s because regardless of what happens in the days ahead, I believe the Dow is going a lot lower once sub-wave 3 of Wave 3 down begins.
If you put a gun to my head, I’d have to say the Dow could still rally to the 31, 300 to 31, 600 level. I do not see it going higher. But if the Dow starts down tomorrow, we could see 30, 000 or lower in a heartbeat.. Remember, we’re still in the early stages of Wave 3 down, so I’m not worrying too much about having the perfect entry points. I’m not a hog. This is a time where entry points are similar to the rules in horse shoes or atom bombs, getting close is good enough.
Anyhow, I hope I made my point. This Bear is only getting started. I’m sticking with my near term targets of 26, 500 to 28,000 for now. If the Dow starts lower in the next day or so, I’ll lower my target for Wave 3 down to the 25,000 level. Everything I’m seeing in this market is telling me we’re going lower. If anything changes, I’ll post it in the WSR.
My strategy: Keep it simple…pick a few inverse index ETFs, look for entry points on the shorter term bars, and then follow the Arrows.
That’s what I’m doing,
h
We’ll be in St Thomas tomorrow for some shopping and more snorkeling.
Market Signals for
06-16-2022
DMI (DIA) | NEG |
DMI (QQQ) | NEG |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | NEG |
THE TIDE | NEG |
Index | Signal | Signal Date |
---|---|---|
DOW | NEG | 09 Jun 2022 |
NASDAQ | NEG | 09 Jun 2022 |
GOLD | NEG | 13 Jun 2022 |
U.S. DOLLAR | POS | 13 Jun 2022 |
BONDS | NEG | 02 Jun 2022 |
CRUDE OIL | POS | 12 May 2022 |
CRYPTO | NEG | 08 Jun 2022 |
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
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Category: Professor's Comments