Professor’s Comments August 30, 2013

Posted by professor  at August 30th, 2013

The Dow rose 16 points, closing at 14,841.  Volume on the NYSE was light, coming in at 91 percent of its 10 day average.  There were 27 new highs and 23 new lows.

Not much changed yesterday.  The cloud of a potential strike on Syria continues to hang over the markets.  Yesterday, the Brits voted to stay out of the conflict, so now it appears that if any strike is going to happen, Obama will have to go it alone.  It seems that the Prez has gotten himself into a bit of a pickle.  Last year he drew a ‘Line in the Sand’ on the use of chemical weapons, and now that Syria appears to have crossed that line (several times), he needs to back it up.  Only now, he can’t find anybody to join him. 

So while the world waits for the inspectors to leave Syria and report the results, Washington will have a few days to figure out how to ‘fire a shot across the bow’.  Talk about crazy!  In the Navy, firing a warning shot like this is easy.  It doesn’t hurt anyone.  But when you fire missiles into a Country, it’s an act of war!  Didn’t Obama run for the Presidency saying he would NOT do things like this?  That he would get us out of wars, not start them.  Didn’t he say that military action without congressional approval was unconstitutional. 

And didn’t Biden say something similar in December 2007?   Didn’t he say “I want to make it clear and I made it clear to the president, if he takes this nation to war in Iran, without congressional approval — I will make it my business to impeach him.”  Impeach the President? …for starting a war!   My how things have changed.  I’m just waiting for the Russians to bring a destroyer out of the Black Sea and park it between those 5 US destroyers and their friend Syria. Then US missiles will have to fly over a Russian ship.  It could appear to the Russians that they are the ones being attacked.  I wonder what will happen then???   I’m sure the Pentagon is starting to think about things like this, especially when it appears that Obama can’t find a friend to bring along to the fight.   Like I said…it’s crazy!

Anyhow, we wait.

We still have three VIX Buy Signals on the Board,  But I’m still waiting for The Professor, The Dean, and the PT indicators to turn positive.  Last night The Professor highlighted 16 new stocks as entering Up trends.  So he’s awake, but still not flashing the go signal.

I did note that the A-D Oscillator has moved up to -20.25.  That’s a significant improvement from where it was 6-10 trading days ago, when it had several days of -200 readings.   The A-D oscillator has been negative since 29 July, telling me that most stocks have been in down trends.  If the oscillator turns positive in the days ahead, it will be another sign that Wave 3 up could be starting. 

Like I said, all I’m doing now is waiting.  Here’s the deal:   If “Cloud of Syria” is resolved peacefully and disappears, the market should rally hard.  There will be plenty of time to participate in any rally.  On the other hand, IF Obama does something stupid, and starts a war…I don’t want to be holding a lot of stocks.  And right now, given what I’ve seen from this Administration, especially with Libya and Egypt, I have to remain cautious.

That’s what I’m doing,

h

BTW, If the Dow starts to rally more than 50 points at anytime in the days ahead, I will be running The Professor and posting the results IF there is a significant change in the number of stocks being highlighted.  More than 50 will be the first sign that an Uptrend could be starting.

Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles

The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
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