Professor’s Comments April 13, 2021
Posted by OMS at April 13th, 2021
I’m away from my trading desk today, so today’s Comments will be briefer than usual.
In the WSR, I discussed how the Dow would likely have a small pullback early this week followed by another small rally to a top. So Monday, we got the small pullback (-55 Dow points). Now, let’s see if we get the rally. I’m still thinking that the rally will not move higher than 33,978. Given today’s weak breath, I’d be surprised if the Dow gets that high.
Yesterday’s volume on the NYSE was only 9 Billion shares, slightly above the 8.7 Billion shares that were traded on Friday, the slowest trading day of the year. Once again, down volume exceeded up volume by a 60-40 ratio. Again, this is not something you want to see if you’re Bullish especially at a time when investor sentiment is running at EXTREME levels.
Friday’s small change signal from the A-D oscillator is still on the Board. Because of this we still need to be on the lookout for a Big Move within the next 1-2 days.
The Market Timing Indicators on the Dow and NASDAQ remain Positive. The Scalp Trading Indicators on the DIA and NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) remain Positive.
The Dean’s List remains Positive while The Tide remains Neutral. A negative Up-Down oscillator is keeping The Tide from being positive.
The Sector Ratio remained at 24-0 Positive after Friday’s session. The top 5 strong sectors were Real Estate, Banks, Autos, Transportation, and Semiconductors. There were no weak sectors. Continue to look for changes to the Sector Ratio as the week progresses.
Model Update: There were NO Changes to the Model. It remains 100 percent in cash.
Top Stocks: No new Comments. See my previous Comments last weekend’s WSR.
Gold: The Market Timing Indicators on Gold (GLD) turned negative after yesterday’s session. As I mentioned in the WSR, I thought the recent rally in gold was likely a fake out move, and now that the signals have turned negative, it appears that gold could still drop 100 points or more before a final bottom is in.
Bonds: The ST indicators on Bonds remain negative. I’m still avoiding Bonds for now.
That’s what I’m doing.
h
Model Portfolio is being shown for educational purposed only. The Buy/Sell actions in the Model Portfolio are made based on technical indicators that can and do change frequently and should NOT be considered as recommendations for trading an actual portfolio. Any gain or loss in the Model Portfolio should not be used to predict future performance of the Model.
Market Signals for
04-13-2021
DMI (DIA) | POS |
DMI (QQQ) | POS |
A/D OSC | |
DEANs LIST | POS |
THE TIDE | NEU |
Index | Signal | Signal Date |
---|---|---|
DOW | POS | 07 Apr 2021 |
NASDAQ | POS | 01 Apr 2021 |
GOLD | NEG | 09 Apr 2021 |
U.S. DOLLAR | NEG | 12 Apr 2021 |
BONDS | NEG | 27 Jan 2021 |
CRUDE OIL | NEU | 12 Apr 2021 |
Not sure of the terminology we use? Check out these articles
The Hockey Stick Pattern
The Creation of Waves and Trends
FAQ
All of the commentary expressed in this site and any attachments are opinions of the author, subject to change, and provided for educational purposes only. Nothing in this commentary or any attachments should be considered as trading advice. Trading any financial instrument is RISKY and may result in loss of capital including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always understand the RISK before you trade.
Category: Professor's Comments